Inflation Showdown: CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales in Focus

The Week Ahead: Week of October 13, 2025 (GMT+3)

Weekly Market Preview

The third week of October delivers a heavy dose of inflation data that could set the tone for monetary policy into the final quarter of 2025. Following last week’s volatility around U.S. labor figures, investors now turn to price and consumption indicators to assess whether global central banks can stay patient—or must prepare for renewed inflation risks.

The U.S. dominates the macro calendar with September CPI, retail sales, and PPI all due. These releases will provide a comprehensive look at how inflation and consumer strength are evolving amid moderating growth. A softening trend across all three would bolster expectations for rate cuts in early 2026, while any upside surprises could trigger another spike in yields and a dollar rebound.

In Europe, Germany’s September CPI and the Eurozone’s headline print will test whether the region’s recent price rebound has legs, potentially complicating the ECB’s cautious pivot. Meanwhile, the UK’s GDP release will offer fresh clues on whether Britain’s economy is stagnating or showing tentative signs of recovery. With markets finely tuned to inflation momentum, even small deviations could drive large swings in FX and bond markets.

Key Events to Watch:

Tuesday, October 14 – 09:00
German CPI (MoM, Sep)
Previous: 0.2% | Forecast: 0.2% | Actual: N/A
Germany’s September inflation is expected to hold steady, signaling sticky underlying price pressures despite weaker output and consumer confidence. Energy base effects have faded, but services and housing costs remain stubborn. A hotter-than-expected reading could challenge the ECB’s dovish stance, supporting the euro. Conversely, a softer print would reinforce the disinflation narrative and pressure yields lower.

Wednesday, October 15 – 15:30
US CPI (YoY, Sep)
Previous: 2.9% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The U.S. CPI release will be the defining event of the week. Inflation eased in August but remains above the Fed’s comfort zone, with shelter and services costs proving persistent. September’s data will test the market’s belief that disinflation is back on track. A softer print would validate expectations for Fed rate cuts in early 2026, likely boosting bonds and equities. However, any renewed uptick especially in core inflation could reignite hawkish fears, supporting the dollar and lifting yields.

Thursday, October 16 – 09:00
UK GDP (MoM, Aug)
Previous: 0.0% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The UK economy stagnated in July, and August’s data will reveal whether the slowdown is deepening. Weak industrial and construction output continues to offset modest resilience in services. A positive surprise would alleviate short-term recession concerns and lend mild support to sterling. A contraction, however, would raise pressure on the BoE to accelerate its dovish shift amid softening inflation and waning demand.

Thursday, October 16 – 15:30
US Core Retail Sales (MoM, Sep)
Previous: 0.7% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Consumer spending has remained robust despite high borrowing costs, but cracks are emerging as excess savings diminish. The September retail sales report will be key for gauging whether U.S. consumption can stay resilient heading into the holiday season. A strong print would reinforce the “soft landing” narrative, supporting risk assets, while a sharp slowdown would amplify growth fears and strengthen expectations for Fed easing.

Thursday, October 16 – 15:30
US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct)
Previous: 23.2 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The Philly Fed index surged in September, suggesting tentative signs of recovery in regional manufacturing. October’s reading will show whether that momentum can hold amid weak export demand and tight financial conditions. Sustained improvement would hint that industrial activity is stabilizing, while renewed weakness could deepen the manufacturing slowdown narrative.

Thursday, October 16 – 15:30
US PPI (MoM, Sep)
Previous: -0.1% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Producer prices fell unexpectedly in August, but input costs could rebound as oil stabilizes. September’s report will shed light on supply-chain cost pressures and their potential pass-through to consumer inflation. A stronger print would undermine confidence in the disinflation trend, while continued weakness could solidify the Fed’s dovish pivot.

Friday, October 17 – 12:00
Eurozone CPI (YoY, Sep)
Previous: 2.0% | Forecast: 2.2% | Actual: N/A
Eurozone inflation is expected to edge higher to 2.2%, driven by services and energy. The reading will serve as a crucial check on whether the ECB’s wait-and-see approach remains justified. A hotter print would delay expectations for policy easing, supporting EUR/USD. However, any downside surprise would add pressure on the ECB to deliver rate cuts earlier in 2026 as growth falters across key economies.